AIG Edition 4

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SAUDI: Increased U.S. Support Signals Strategic Shift from Israel to Stabilize Region

Summary: U.S. President Donald Trump signed a $142 billion weapons deal with Riyadh, marking the largest weapons deal Washington has ever done. President Trump's visit to an agreement with Riyadh signals a growing alignment in pursuit of regional stability with a more tone-aware partner, suggesting a shift away from the longstanding U.S.-Israel relationship.

Development: On May 13, U.S. President Donald Trump started his multi-country visit to the Middle East. Trump started by visiting Saudi Arabia, with plans to visit Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Washington signed a $600 billion investment deal with Riyadh, with $142 billion being a part of a U.S. arms package to Saudi Arabia. The $142 billion arms package is the largest weapons deal the U.S. has ever made. Saudi Arabia is the largest purchaser of arms from the U.S., with the kingdom buying around $350 billion over a decade. Tel Aviv has not released any direct statements regarding the announcements made by President Trump, but it has made it clear that the U.S. is pulling away from its interests in the region. This month, the U.S. left Israel out of a ceasefire agreement with the Houthis and has negotiated the release of an American hostage previously held by Hamas in Gaza without Tel Aviv. Israel’s military is occupying parts of both Syria and Lebanon. Damascus and Beirut are both working to negotiate with Tel Aviv to have it withdraw its forces from its borders. 

Analysis: President Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia, accompanied by an arms package, appears to signal a growing alignment with Riyadh in pursuit of regional stability, suggesting a shift away from the longstanding U.S.-Israel relationship. With the expanded arms package and strengthened ties to the U.S., Saudi Arabia is poised to increase its influence in the region, potentially becoming the primary U.S. partner for ensuring stability in the Middle East. Meanwhile, Lebanon and Syria are in the process of stabilization and forming new governments, with Israel acting as a key obstacle to sovereignty in both countries due to its military presence in the occupied territories. The U.S. likely perceives Saudi Arabia as a more tone-aware regional counterpart. At the same time, Israel's approach may alienate and appear tone-deaf to the sensitivities of other Arab partners. President Trump's decision to exclude Israel from the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and the Houthis likely reflects a broader shift in U.S. policy, moving away from reliance on Tel Aviv for Middle Eastern security and stability. Additionally, President Trump's choice to bypass Israel during his Middle East trip further underscores his administration's growing focus on forging business relationships with Gulf nations, such as Qatar, which Israeli officials have previously accused of supporting Hamas.

[Jacob Faciana]

SYRIA: U.S. Sanctions Lifted Likely to Shift Regional Sentiment Away from Tehran

Summary: Washington announced plans to lift longstanding sanctions on Syria during President Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia, where he secured a historic $600 billion investment deal and a $142 billion arms package. The decision, encouraged by Saudi and Turkish leaders, indicates a shift in Syria's alignment away from Iran and toward the U.S.-backed Arab states, with Damascus signaling strong ties to Riyadh.

Development: On 13 May, U.S. President Donald Trump stated he would remove sanctions on Damascus. The U.S. has imposed heavy sanctions on Syria since 2004 and has designated it a state sponsor of terrorism since 1979. The Syrian Foreign Minister said in response to the lifting of sanctions that Saudi Arabia is "the voice of reason and wisdom," according to the NY Times. Syrians took to the streets throughout the country to celebrate the news of Washington's plan to lift its sanctions off Damascus. The announcement came during Donald Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia, where he secured a $600 billion investment commitment and a $142 billion arms package. The arms package is the largest weapons deal Washington has ever done. During Trump's visit, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Turkish President Erdogan urged Trump to lift sanctions on Damascus. 

Analysis: The lifting of U.S. sanctions on Syria is likely going to draw Damascus closer to the U.S. and its Arab allies, further diminishing Tehran's influence in the Levant. Syria relied on Iranian support before the fall of the Assad Regime due to heavy sanctions, and now, with sanctions lifted, Damascus will likely seek to align itself with Gulf Arab states and NATO. Damascus' recent praise of Riyadh indicates a regional shift from Tehran to U.S.-backed Gulf Arab states. The U.S. may utilize the new Arab relationships as leverage further to isolate Tehran from the Levant and the broader Middle East. 

[Unnamed Contributor]

BURKINA FASO: Massacre Allegations May Aid Extremism Recruitment Efforts

Summary: Burkina Faso's military was involved in the massacre of over 130 civilians, particularly the Fulani ethnic group, which has faced scrutiny from the government for being sympathetic to extremist groups. The massacre is likely to push local populations toward extremist groups, exasperating the already fragile security situation in the Sahel.

Development: On 12 May, Human Rights Watch (HRW) released a report detailing the slaughter of more than 130 civilians from the Fulani ethnic group by Burkina Faso's military and pro-government militias. Videos began circulating online in March, exposing the mass killings of civilians by the government. However, it was not until the HRW interviewed witnesses, journalists, militia members, and other civilians that confirmed Burkina Faso's military was involved. Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), a group affiliated with Al-Qaeda, retaliated by attacking local villages that assisted the military. Currently, 40% of Burkina Faso is under the control of al-Qaeda-linked groups. In 2022, Burkina Faso's military seized control of the government as the country struggled to control Islamist insurgencies, resulting in thousands of deaths and millions displaced. The government declined to comment on the alleged massacre by its military and has previously dismissed similar claims of human rights abuses.

Analysis: The massacre of Fulani civilians may push locals toward extremists, especially where government security is lacking. The Fulani are often accused of backing jihadist movements, which will deepen their grievances and may drive them to groups like JNIM. Marginalized groups will likely strengthen extremist recruitment efforts and exacerbate regional instability. Without addressing the underlying causes of unrest, the strategy of repression is unlikely to halt the spread of extremism. Instead, it will likely fuel resentment and reduce community cooperation with the military, hindering counterinsurgency efforts. The lack of accountability for human rights abuses further undermines trust and supports a cycle of violence. Burkina Faso's growing alignment with Moscow and the Wagner Group limits international pressure and increases the government's freedom to act. This shift may escalate violence and hinder long-term stability. As extremism spreads in Burkina Faso, the risk of regional spillover to neighboring states increases. Displacement and cross-border extremism will destabilize neighbors like Mali and Niger, complicating efforts to secure the Sahel.

[Delaney Kingsland]

DR CONGO: Humanitarian Aid Delivery to Beni Likely to Face Threat from M23 Rebels

Summary: A recent humanitarian aid operation has delivered essential supplies to storage facilities in Beni, intended for distribution to civilians in the conflict-affected Lubero territory. The M23 rebels are active in nearby territories and have previously raided similar facilities. The aid depot in Beni is a likely target and will require immediate and increased security measures to ensure the supplies reach displaced civilians in eastern DR Congo. 

Development: On 6 May, humanitarian partners successfully transported a large shipment of relief supplies to Beni in North Kivu Province. The operation is part of a broader effort to assist thousands of internally displaced persons and civilians in Lubero. Lubero has experienced ongoing violence between the Congolese government and M23 rebels, and the mass displacement of civilians has created severe humanitarian needs. Beni was chosen as a staging ground due to its logistical advantages and relative stability compared to frontline areas. The M23 rebel group has previously looted aid storage sites in the region, redirecting supplies to support their armed operations. Lubero is within operational reach of the M23 rebel group, which has previously looted humanitarian storage sites in eastern DRC, including facilities in Rutshuru and Masisi. 

Analysis: The aid stockpile in Beni is likely to become a strategic target for M23 rebels, who have repeatedly exploited humanitarian supplies to sustain their operations. Given the M23 rebels' history of seizing aid and their expanding footprint in eastern DR Congo, the new depot in Beni presents a high-risk vulnerability for Kinshasa's efforts. If successfully attacked, the operation could strengthen M23's logistical capacity and likely undermine civilian trust in humanitarian actors, possibly turning to M23 for support out of desperation. The humanitarian aid organizations and Congolese security forces must implement strong protection protocols, including surveillance, prompt turnover of supplies, and contingency planning for alternative distribution points. Without rapidly deployed security measures, humanitarian access to Lubero is likely to be severely compromised if the M23 rebels decide to attack.

[Unnamed Contributor]

LEBANON: Abbas Disarmament Proposal Likely to Spark Conflict in Refugee Camps

Summary: The Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas scheduled a visit to Beirut to meet with the Lebanese government regarding the disarmament of his political party, Fatah, and other Palestinian factions in Lebanon. His call for disarmament is likely to cause internal conflict among these groups, many of whom see their armed presence as essential for self-defense in a country where they face systemic discrimination and lack fundamental rights.

Development: On 4 May, PA President Mahmoud Abbas set a trip to Beirut for 19 May to meet with the Lebanese government to discuss disarming his political party, Fatah, in Lebanon and other Palestinian factions in Lebanon. The meeting comes at a time when the Lebanese government is attempting to create a state monopoly on all arms and disarm non-state actors in Lebanon. Abbas is also calling on other Palestinian factions throughout the country to follow the disarmament order and give up arms to the Lebanese government. Israel still stays embedded in southern Lebanon, as it views any actors in Lebanon, other than the Lebanese military, having weapons as a threat to its security. Palestinian refugees in Lebanon do not have equal rights in terms of political, employment, and representation as other groups do. Abbas stated that if the Palestinian factions do not disarm, they will lose organizational and political backing. 

Analysis: Abbas's disarmament request is likely to create internal tensions among Palestinian factions in Lebanon, many of which rely on armed presence as a means of self-defense in a country where they lack basic rights and legal protections. The demand may fracture Palestinian political unity in the camps, as groups opposed to Fatah view disarmament as surrendering leverage without guarantees of improved conditions. While Abbas's push aligns with Lebanese efforts to centralize weapons control under the state, the move is unlikely to gain traction without any promises of future reforms and protections. Hezbollah is likely to oppose disarmament in Palestinian camps, fearing it could set a precedent for targeting its arsenal in the future. If the disarmament is successful, the Lebanese government's monopoly on arms could help reduce Israel's justification for maintaining a military presence in southern Lebanon, a security concern for Hezbollah. 

[Unnamed Contributor]

N. KOREA: Naval Modernization Likely to Alter Security and Denuclearization Efforts

Summary: The launch of the Choe Hyon destroyer represents a notable shift in North Korea's military strategy, with significant implications for regional security and international diplomatic efforts. Monitoring and addressing these developments will be crucial for maintaining regional stability.

Development: On 25 April, North Korea unveiled a new naval destroyer, the Choe Hyon, equipped with what Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un called "the most powerful weapons built in its warship history," according to NBC News. The ship's weapons cache consists of anti-radar systems, automatic guns, jamming guns, and a vertical launch system (VLS) capable of launching ballistic and cruise missiles. Kim Jong Un unveiled the ship at a public event where he spoke about the future of the North Korean military and its push toward naval modernization and challenging nuclear threats. There is ongoing speculation on whether Russia aided in providing the technology and construction of the destroyer. Recently, North Korea and Russia have looked to expand their military capabilities and support one another. Most recently, North Korea has sent over 10,000 troops and weapons to aid Russia against Ukraine. On 9 May, Kim Jong Un publicly rationalized North Korea's involvement in the Ukraine conflict as "defending their brother nation," according to Reuters. 

Analysis: The potential involvement of foreign aid from Russia in North Korea's military advancements indicates a deepening military collaboration between the two countries. It is highly likely that Russia returned the favor and helped North Korea in the development of the Choe Hyon. The advancement in North Korea's naval capabilities could likely complicate ongoing and future diplomatic efforts aimed at denuclearization and regional stability. Its introduction of the destroyer signifies a strategic shift towards modernizing and reinforcing its navy and projecting power beyond its borders. Countries engaged in negotiations with Pyongyang may need to factor in these new developments when framing their foreign policy and security strategies. With a stronger military, North Korea could leverage its negotiating position to demand more sanction relief or other bargaining factors. This advanced warship could also likely alter the security in Northeast Asia as neighboring countries like South Korea and Japan may perceive this development as a threat, potentially leading to an arms race or increased military posturing in the region. They will likely need to increase their defense spending to assert more substantial maritime influence or reconsider military alliances with comparable powers to combat North Korea's navy. The United States may need to reassess its military and diplomatic strategies in the Indo-Pacific to address the evolving capabilities of the North Korean navy. Kim Jong Un also drew attention to his next goal of producing a nuclear-powered submarine, again likely to intimidate and threaten foreign powers with its military objectives. 

[Delaney Kingsland]