AIG Edition 10

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SYRIA: Ankara is Likely to Increase Counterterrorism Efforts to Stabilize South Border 

Summary: A suicide attacker fired shots and then set off an explosive vest inside a church in Damascus, killing 25 and injuring dozens. Turkey is likely to increase its counterterrorism efforts inside Syria to help stabilize Syrian security and decrease the chances of terrorist attacks against Turkey coming through its southern border with Syria.

Development: On 22 June, a suicide bomber opened fire and then detonated an explosive vest inside a church in Damascus. Observers, including the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, have confirmed 25 civilian deaths and 63 injuries. The attack on the church marked the first attack of its kind in Syria since the fall of the al-Assad regime. Since the fall of the al-Assad regime, Syria's interim government has vowed to support the rights of all minority groups and communities inside Syria. Syria's Interior Ministry spokesman Noureddine Al-Baba, in a news conference, said their "ongoing investigation is pointing to the extremist Islamic State group," according to AP News. The Turkish Foreign Ministry gave its condolences for the attack and highlighted that the bombing "undermines efforts to establish stability and security in Syria," according to Al Jazeera. The estimated cost to rebuild Syria is $400 billion. Turkish companies "may or may not undertake these projects, but logistically Turkey's port and road infrastructure will be the key hub for the transportation of goods," according to Reuters. Turkey has launched multiple military operations in Syria to create stability and target terrorist organizations. These operations aim to eliminate threats to Syria's stability, like the Islamic State.

Analysis: Turkey will likely strengthen its counterterrorism operations inside Syria following the recent bombing in Damascus, aiming to target suspected militant positions and increase cross-border military activity with Syria. The bombing may encourage Turkish authorities to justify expanding intelligence activities throughout Syria with the justification of Syrian stability. With Syria's rebuilding costs estimated at $400 billion and Turkey positioned at the forefront of regional logistics and reconstruction efforts, Ankara has a significant stake in Syria's future. Sustained instability in Syria threatens Turkey's economic interests, making Syrian stability crucial for Turkey to achieve long-term economic and geopolitical gains. Syria's ability to show legitimacy is likely to weaken, as the bombing occurred in the country's capital and suggests that the Syrian government may be unable to protect its minority populations. This perceived instability might further weaken confidence among Syrians and international actors in Syria's ability to govern effectively, strengthening Turkey's argument for a more assertive regional role. 

[Jacob Faciana]

JORDAN: Internal Tensions from Israeli Gas Deal Likely to Threaten Islamic Action Front

Summary: Due to the ongoing conflict with Iran, Israel has suspended gas supplies to Jordan from its Leviathan field, temporarily halting a 15-year agreement established in 2020 between Tel Aviv and Amman. Renewed internal dissent in Jordan over the gas deal with Israel will intensify pressure on Amman to withdraw from the agreement, potentially threatening the existence of opposition political parties. Mass unrest in Jordan would likely arise if Amman were to remove opposition political parties.

Development: On 21 June, Israel suspended its gas supplies to Jordan from its Leviathan gas field off the coast of Haifa due to the conflict with Iran. Tel Aviv and Amman have had a gas supply agreement in place since 2020, under which gas has been flowing into Jordan. The parties agreed that the contract would remain in effect for a period of 15 years. The only clause in the contract that allows Amman to exit the deal without financial penalties is the force majeure clause. The force majeure clause allows parties to excuse themselves from fulfilling their obligations when unforeseen and uncontrollable events, such as war, occur. It would not only allow Amman to withdraw from the deal without incurring any financial penalties but also enable it to seek damages, which are estimated to amount to billions of dollars. Jordan imports 97% of its energy needs, and 40% of its electricity-generating needs come from the pipeline with Israel to the Leviathan gas field. The Islamic Action Front (IAF) is the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan. Back in April 2025, Jordan banned the Muslim Brotherhood and seized all of its facilities and assets. The IAF has been under scrutiny since the ban by Jordanian officials. In the September 2024 Jordanian election, the IAF won the most seats out of any party in Jordan. Since Tel Aviv suspended the agreement, campaigners in Jordan, including the IAF, have urged Amman to exit the deal with Tel Aviv and call for the invocation of the force majeure clause.

Analysis: The internal dissent in Jordan over the gas deal with Israel will intensify pressure on Amman to withdraw from the agreement, potentially threatening the existence of the IAF. Mounting public opposition to the suspended gas deal will likely fuel broader political instability in Jordan, increasing pressure on the government to act decisively. The IAF, already under heightened scrutiny following the ban on the Muslim Brotherhood, will likely be the focal point of Amman’s efforts to contain dissent. Given the IAF’s wide support and electoral strength, any government attempt to sideline or remove the IAF from political presence would almost certainly provoke widespread unrest. Despite these tensions, Amman is unlikely to abandon the deal, as its energy reliance constrains its options. As public pressure grows, Jordan’s leadership will likely face a sharpening confrontation between preserving internal stability and suppressing the IAF, a socially powerful opposition.

[Unnamed Contributor]

LEBANON: New Port Scanners May Restore Gulf Ties, Advance Hezbollah Disarmament

Summary: The Lebanese Ministry of Public Works and Transport announced it will move forward with the initiative to install advanced container scanners at ports in Beirut and Tripoli. Other Arab countries have cut their imports from Lebanon in the past due to drug smuggling issues and corruption in the ports linked to Hezbollah. Installing advanced container scanners at ports in Lebanon will likely increase international confidence in Lebanon, reshaping economic and political ties with Gulf Arab countries, supporting Lebanon's economic recovery, and contributing to Hezbollah's disarmament efforts.

Background: On 18 June, the Lebanese Ministry of Public Works and Transport announced its decision to proceed with the initiative to install advanced container scanners at the Beirut and Tripoli ports to address security and economic challenges. The current scanners at Lebanon's ports are limited in capability, scanning only 40 containers per day despite a daily intake of 70 containers. The new advanced scanners will have the ability to scan 100 containers per hour. The port authorities proposed the project many years ago to install new advanced scanners, but previous cabinet members continuously struck it down. The cost of purchasing and installing the new scanners will be covered by revenue generated from inspection fees, not by the Lebanese people. The scanners will be installed and operated by French shipping company Compagnie Maritime d'Affrètement - Compagnie Générale Maritime (CMA CGM). The Lebanese state will assume ownership of the scanners once it fully pays for them using inspection fee revenue.

Increased Port Security will Likely Advance Hezbollah Disarmament: The deployment of advanced container scanners at the ports, enabling authorities to inspect all shipments, will likely significantly disrupt Hezbollah's logistical operations and could potentially accelerate efforts toward disarmament. Israel severely weakened Hezbollah in its war that ended in November 2024, dwindling its projectile capabilities from 10,000 to 150. Since the ceasefire agreement, Israel has continued targeting Hezbollah's infrastructure and senior leadership, most recently on 21 June when the Israeli military carried out a strike on a key Hezbollah commander in southern Lebanon during its recent conflict with Iran. Prior to the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, Iran relied on the country as its primary logistical hub for land supply routes into Lebanon to support Hezbollah. According to Hadath, Hezbollah security sources indicated that the group is shifting its focus to the Port of Beirut in an effort to compensate for the disruption of land-based supply routes. Hezbollah has three supply line sources: land-based routes with Syria, the Beirut-Rafic Hariri International Airport, and the Port of Beirut. The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) have taken control of nearly 90% of Hezbollah's infrastructure south of the Litani River. They are actively pursuing strategies to achieve the group's complete disarmament across Lebanon, aiming to do so without triggering internal conflict. Back in May 2025, the Lebanese government removed all Beirut Airport employees with ties to Hezbollah.

Lebanese Exports to Gulf Likely to Resume: The Gulf Arab states are likely to renew economic ties with Lebanon and restart imports of Lebanese goods due to the new enhanced security measures at the ports and the decline of Hezbollah's influence. In 2021, Saudi Arabia halted imports from Lebanon due to concerns about drug smuggling, particularly the trafficking of Captagon, a drug produced and distributed by Hezbollah in coordination with the former Assad regime in Syria. Saudi Arabia was the top destination for Lebanese agricultural exports, accounting for 22.1%, according to Al Jazeera. Officials failed to address security concerns at the Port of Beirut, and previous governments struck down reforms, reinforcing Riyadh's decision to suspend Lebanese imports. In March 2024, the Lebanese president met with officials in Riyadh to discuss the resumption of Lebanese exports to Saudi Arabia and explore deeper diplomatic engagement with Beirut to capitalize on Hezbollah's weakened position. 

Foreign Investments May Start to Return to Lebanon: Foreign investment, which quickly withdrew from Lebanon at the onset of the economic crisis in 2019, is likely to return as new reforms increasingly restrict Hezbollah's supply routes and contribute to stabilizing the country's political and security landscape. Foreign investment in Lebanon began to withdraw during the 2019 economic crisis and continued to decline in the following years as Hezbollah's influence and control expanded. In May 2022, Lebanon held its parliamentary elections, leading to the presidential vote in October of that year. The parliament left the presidential seat vacant for over two years and failed 12 times to elect a candidate. In January 2025, the parliament elected the current Lebanese President, Joseph Aoun, who is outspoken against Hezbollah's arms and Iranian influence in Lebanon. Aoun's new government has strengthened security measures in Lebanon. The Lebanese military has been securing southern Lebanon by dismantling Hezbollah's military facilities and strengthening border security along the Syrian front. The Port of Beirut, long marred by corruption and security issues since the 2020 blast, is now implementing new measures aimed at restoring security and confidence in Lebanon.

Outlook and Implications: The installation of advanced container scanners at ports in Lebanon will increase international confidence in Lebanon, likely leading to a restructuring of economic and political relations with Gulf Arab countries, guiding a strengthening economy in Lebanon, and aiding in the disarmament process of Hezbollah. By enhancing the ability to monitor and control shipments, these scanners directly undermine Hezbollah's logistical networks, which have long relied on exploiting weak port security and corruption to move arms, drugs, and other illicit goods to support their influence in Lebanon. This disruption not only weakens Hezbollah's operational capacity but also reinforces state sovereignty and the LAF's efforts to curtail the group's military influence without risking internal conflict. The potential for dismantling Hezbollah's supply routes through the ports and the Syrian border is likely to rebuild state power within Lebanon gradually. Implementing port scanners displays an opportunity for the Lebanese government and its security apparatus to consolidate control over national institutions. At the same time, Hezbollah has become severely weakened, and Iran is focusing on its conflict with Israel. However, the process remains delicate, as Hezbollah continues to hold substantial political influence, and its reaction to these pressures will play a crucial role in determining Lebanon's stability in the near future due to the port being one of the last weak points Hezbollah relies on for its supply chain. There remains a significant risk of rising internal tensions, particularly in light of Hezbollah's regional alliance with Iran and the current regional conflict with Israel. 

Economically, the enhanced port security and weakening of Hezbollah's influence will likely prime foreign relations for Lebanon to restore and expand trade relations with Gulf Arab states. The resumption of Lebanese exports, particularly to Saudi Arabia, would aid Lebanon's broken economy and create a broader confidence in Lebanon's standing within the Arab world. This regional confidence could catalyze a recovery in key sectors such as agriculture, food processing, and manufacturing, which have suffered from export restrictions linked to security concerns and reputational damage. Renewed confidence in Lebanon's reform trajectory and security improvements is likely to attract foreign investment that fled during the prolonged economic crisis that started in 2019. The combined effect of political stabilization, improved institutional oversight, and infrastructural upgrades at the ports enhances Lebanon's regional trade and logistics hub appeal. However, investor confidence will depend heavily on the government's ability to maintain its promises on reforms and ensure Hezbollah does not pose a domestic threat to stability. 

[Unnamed Contributor]