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AIG Edition 15
- AIG Team
- Aug 8
- 4 min read
Summary: Tehran recently shut down government offices to conserve water, with officials warning that the country may run out of water within weeks. Iran’s growing water scarcity is likely to intensify regional tensions with neighboring countries, such as Turkey and Afghanistan, over shared water resources, as its domestic supplies continue to dwindle.
Development: On 7 August, Iran closed government offices in over half of its 31 provinces, including Tehran. The decision comes after Iranian authorities warned that it may run out of water within weeks, as rainfall is down 40% from the long-term average, the lowest levels in 60 years, and daily temperatures that exceed 122 degrees Fahrenheit. In response to the deepening crisis, Iran has reduced water pressure throughout homes in Tehran and declared emergency holidays to conserve electricity and water. Water pressure has been reduced by almost half in 80% of Tehran’s households, with faucets regularly running dry. All rivers and groundwater sources near Tehran are nearly depleted, according to DW. Iran has previously expressed concern over Turkey’s dam construction on the Tigris River, which Tehran claims restricts water access to its western provinces. Since 1980, Turkey has created the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP), which constructed 22 dams to boost agricultural and industrial productivity. The Helmand River, a vital water source for Iran and Afghanistan, has sparked disputes over dams in Afghanistan. Kabul faces a severe water crisis, with experts warning it may run out by 2030.
Analysis: Iran’s water scarcity is likely to exacerbate regional tensions with neighboring countries, such as Turkey, over shared water resources as internal resources become increasingly scarce. As water reserves in Iran collapse, Tehran may prioritize securing external flows from rivers originating in Turkey, likely heightening tensions. Turkey is likely to resist any Iranian pressure, viewing water from the Tigris River as a sovereign resource rather than a shared one. The construction of a dam on the Tigris River as part of Ankara’s GAP has previously caused tensions with Iran, making it a likely factor for Iran to claim some access to the Tigris River. Further disputes are likely to come with Afghanistan, as Tehran will likely revisit the Helmand River dispute to secure more rights and access.
[Jacob Faciana]
Summary: Lebanon’s cabinet approved a plan to disarm Hezbollah, tasking the Lebanese Armed Forces with dismantling the group’s remaining weapons and military infrastructure by the end of August. Hezbollah will likely refuse to comply with the disarmament plan and will likely conceal or redistribute its arsenal to maintain its military capabilities.
Development: On 7 August, Lebanon’s cabinet approved a resolution to disarm Hezbollah and assigned a committee to prepare a comprehensive disarmament plan by the end of August. The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) will implement and enforce the plan to dismantle Hezbollah’s remaining weapons and military infrastructure. International actors, including the U.S. and several European states, have reportedly offered logistical and intelligence support for the process. Hezbollah publicly rejected the resolution, declaring it would not recognize any government-led disarmament effort and framing the move as a violation of its role in Lebanon’s “resistance” against Israel.
Analysis: Hezbollah is highly unlikely to comply with the government’s disarmament plan and will likely accelerate efforts to conceal or redistribute its arsenal ahead of enforcement. The group’s historical resilience and established smuggling networks will likely lead the group to conceal its arsenal and keep its remaining military capability despite official measures. Political divisions within Lebanon will likely constrain the LAF’s ability to enforce the plan, the risk of confrontation with Hezbollah, and the group’s deep entrenchment in civilian areas. Even partial disarmament could sustain attacks from Israel or political destabilization, particularly if Hezbollah perceives the plan as driven by foreign influence. In the near term, the initiative is more likely to push Hezbollah’s military assets further underground rather than eliminate them, maintaining Israel’s attacks and occupation in Lebanon.
[Jacob Faciana]
Summary: Lebanon’s cabinet approved a resolution to disarm Hezbollah and have an approved plan by the end of August, tasking the Lebanese Armed Forces with creating the roadmap to disarm Hezbollah by the end of the year. Israel is likely to intensify its attacks on Hezbollah’s infrastructure, leading up to the end of August, to prevent any attempts from Hezbollah to conceal or relocate its weapons and programs.
Development: On 7 August, Lebanon’s cabinet approved a resolution to disarm Hezbollah and tasked a special committee with drafting a complete disarmament plan by the end of August. The Lebanese Armed Forces are to be in charge of implementing and enforcing the disarmament plan. The decision follows weeks of U.S.-mediated discussions and mounting international pressure on Beirut to assert state control over all armed groups. Israel has been conducting consistent airstrikes throughout Lebanon since the November 2024 ceasefire agreement that ended the war between Israel and Hezbollah, which left Hezbollah’s leadership structure and weapon capabilities severely diminished. Most recently, Israeli strikes in eastern Lebanon killed six and wounded 10 while targeting multiple sites connected to Hezbollah’s infrastructure.
Analysis: Israel is likely to intensify its strikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon due to the Lebanese government coming closer to finalizing a disarmament plan. Israel will likely seek to degrade Hezbollah’s operational capacity in the likely event that weapons are relocated, concealed, or redistributed to other militant actors. This preemptive approach could drive an escalation in targeted strikes on weapons depots and manufacturing facilities. The disarmament plan also threatens Iran’s strategic foothold in Lebanon, which may prompt increased efforts by Tehran to sustain Hezbollah through covert resupply or political maneuvering. For Israel, visible enforcement actions by Beirut will likely determine the pace and scope of its strikes. However, aggressive Israeli action risks provoking retaliatory attacks from Hezbollah before the group’s capabilities are diminished, potentially triggering a broader conflict that could derail Beirut’s disarmament plan.
[Unnamed Contributor]
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