AIG Edition 5

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IRAN: Threat to Block Strait of Hormuz Likely to Increase U.S. Military Posturing

Summary: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that Tehran would block the Strait of Hormuz if sanctions and restrictions on its oil continue. If Tehran follows through on this threat, the U.S. will likely invoke military action against Iran. 

Development: On 18 May, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that Tehran would block the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. restrictions and sanctions on its oil continued. In the last six months, Iran has strengthened its military and drills in the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz accounts for 20% of global oil shipments. Washington has stated it will ensure the security and free passage of trade through the Strait of Hormuz. In March 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to take military action on Iran if it did not make a nuclear deal with Washington. On 17 May, the U.S. deployed F-15s to Diego Garcia to help protect and assist the recent transfer of B-52s to the base. Diego Garcia is a U.S. military base roughly 2,100 miles south of Iran's coast in the Indian Ocean. The threat from Tehran to block the strait comes shortly after the U.S. diplomatic tour in the Middle East that resulted in a weapons deal with Saudi Arabia, one of Iran's most notable regional adversaries. The weapons deal between Washington and Riyadh has become the largest weapons deal Washington has ever made. 

Analysis: Tehran's recent threat to block the Strait of Hormuz will likely escalate tensions and increase the probability of direct U.S. military action against Iran if it invokes the threat. The threat is likely a direct response to heightened U.S. pressure, including sanctions on Iranian oil exports and the recent record-breaking arms deal with Saudi Arabia, a key regional adversary of Iran. Washington's statement that it will ensure the security of all trade and energy shipments in the Middle East, combined with its recent deployment of F-15s to Diego Garcia in support of newly arrived B-52 bombers, indicates that the U.S. is increasing its readiness for a potential military confrontation. Given that 20% of global oil shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, any attempt by Iran to disrupt its flow would likely trigger a swift and forceful reaction. The buildup of Iranian military drills over the past six months suggests that Tehran is positioning itself for escalation if diplomatic efforts fail. 

[Unnamed Contributor]

SYRIA: Political and Military Action Likely to Increase Due to U.S. Sanction Relief 

Summary: Syrian security forces launched an operation against the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in Aleppo shortly after Syrian President Sharaa met with U.S. President Trump in Riyadh to discuss the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Syria, the future of Syria’s unity and stability, and counterterrorism efforts against ISIS. Damascus will likely increase its operational tempo against ISIS and adopt a more aggressive political approach towards smaller non-aligned groups. 

Development: On 17 May, Syrian security forces carried out an operation against ISIS in Aleppo, resulting in the death of three and the arrest of four ISIS members. The Syrian government announced that the operation was the first of its kind carried out against ISIS. The operation came just three days after Syrian President Sharaa met with U.S. President Trump in Riyadh to discuss U.S. sanctions on Syria. Trump expressed confidence in Sharaa and stressed the importance of counterterrorism efforts against ISIS in Syria. The new Syrian government released a statement on 18 May to the country’s smaller armed factions, giving them a deadline of ten days to merge into the defense ministry. If the groups do not merge into the defense ministry, the Syrian government stated they would “face unspecified measures,” according to Reuters. ISIS attacked a police station in eastern Syria just one day after the government raids were carried out in Aleppo, which resulted in three deaths and several wounded.

Analysis: The U.S. sanctions lifted off of Syria, and the new relationship built between Washington and Damascus will likely result in an increase in operational tempo against ISIS and a more aggressive approach both militarily and politically to manage Syria. The recent diplomatic talks between Washington and Damascus will likely bring a more aggressive military and political approach from Damascus to meet U.S. demands. The first-of-its-kind operation carried out against ISIS in Aleppo by the Syrian security forces is likely the start of a Syrian operational campaign to rid ISIS of its borders. The ISIS attack in eastern Syria the day after the security forces' operation in Aleppo may indicate an aggressive resurgence of ISIS in Syria. A large-scale conflict in Syria between security forces and ISIS will lead to a test of the new Syrian government's ability to handle internal conflict and unify all factions under a single government.

[Jacob Faciana]

CÔTE D'IVOIRE: U.S. Intelligence Operations Signals Growing Sahel Threat

Summary: The U.S. is finalizing plans to establish a drone base in Côte d'Ivoire. This move reflects a recalibration of the U.S. counterterrorism strategy, prioritizing stability, access to maritime routes, and preserving regional partnerships amid democratic regression and shifting alliances in the Sahel region.

Development: On 16 May, the U.S. officially announced plans to advance the construction of a drone base in Côte d'Ivoire. On 24 April, U.S. Marine Corps General Michael Langley, Commander of U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM), visited Côte d'Ivoire to attend the opening ceremony of Flintlock 2025, AFRICOM's annual multinational special operations exercise. During his visit, General Langley and U.S. Ambassador Jessica Davis Ba met with Ivorian Minister of Defense Téné Birahima Ouattara and Chief of Defense Staff Lt. Gen. Lassina Doumbia to discuss deepening bilateral cooperation and the potential establishment of a U.S. drone base in the country. The U.S. spent over a decade in the Sahel region, maintaining key intelligence infrastructure since 2011. However, it withdrew in 2023 after being forced out, losing its capacity to respond to transnational threats. This development marks the end of its long-standing presence in the area. With extremist groups expanding their reach across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, the region has become a blind spot for U.S. counterterrorism efforts. Côte d'Ivoire borders these countries, making it a valuable location for the U.S. to monitor jihadist movements. Its geographical positioning offers access to the Sahel and the Gulf of Guinea. Côte d'Ivoire is also a member of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and plays a leadership role in West African security efforts, giving the U.S. access to regional intelligence progress and coordination. 

Analysis: The plan to establish a drone base in Côte d'Ivoire represents a broader U.S. strategy to reposition its military presence in West Africa, especially after the 2023 coup in Niger that led to the withdrawal of U.S. military assets in the region. Côte d'Ivoire, a relatively stable democracy with coastal access, offers a logistically viable and diplomatically friendly alternative to bridging the counter-surveillance and intelligence gap left by the Niger withdrawal. The base would allow the U.S. to improve its ability to monitor threats, including jihadist movements, maritime piracy, and cross-border smuggling. The strengthened U.S.- Côte d'Ivoire relationship signals a growing partnership in counterterrorism in the Sahel region. An increase in joint military operations, exercises, and training will likely follow between the two countries. The current Ivorian government likely views this partnership as a way to increase its national and regional security. 

[Delaney Kingsland]