AIG Edition 6

AIG Edition 6.pdf

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SYRIA: New Energy Deal Likely to Restore State Legitimacy and Counter Iran

Summary: The U.S. brokered an energy agreement between Syria and foreign investors to create as many as 300,000 jobs in Syria and provide 50% of its energy needs. The energy deal and increase in jobs will likely boost stability and improve infrastructure, strengthening the country’s ability to restore legitimacy. 

Development: On 29 May, the U.S. brokered a $7 billion energy agreement between Syria and U.S., Turkish, and Qatari companies, aiming to rebuild a power grid devastated by Syria’s 13-year civil war, which has left much of the country facing daily blackouts lasting up to 20 hours. The energy project is estimated to provide Syria with 50% of its electricity needs. The energy project will create approximately 50,000 direct and 250,000 indirect jobs through four gas-powered plants in central and eastern Syria and a 1,000-megawatt solar farm in the south. The Syrian Energy Minister Mohammed al-Bashir stated that Syria agrees to “activate a gas pipeline that connects Syria with Turkey, with gas flows expected in June,” according to Reuters. Syria’s unemployment rate in 2024 was 27.75%. Israel and Syria have been engaged in official talks as of 27 May to discuss deconfliction between the two states. 

Analysis: The creation of new jobs in Syria, along with a more stable energy grid, will likely lead to an effective social infrastructure against extremism and militant groups backed by Iran. An increase in jobs and a stable energy grid will likely lead to increased stability and restore legitimacy against Iran. Foreign investment is more likely to flow into Syria as its societal and infrastructural stability improves. An increase in foreign investment will aid in both the legitimacy and stability of Syria’s new landscape, which will likely be met with Israel viewing Syria as a trusted state actor in the Middle East, leading to lasting peace between the two states. The U.S. will likely continue to add support and investment into Syria as an economic instrument of power to counter Iranian influence without using military force. 

[Jacob Faciana]

CZECH REPUBLIC: Cyber Espionage Accusations Likely to Reduce Chinese Investment

Summary: The Czech Republic accused China of backing cyber-attacks against its Ministry of Foreign Affairs by the group APT31 and summoned the Chinese ambassador in response. China will likely reduce its economic investment in Czech infrastructure, technology, and energy sectors, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will likely use this attack to advance its stance on cyber defense improvements. 

Development: On 28 May, the Czech Republic accused China of orchestrating a series of cyberattacks on its Ministry of Foreign Affairs, attributing the attacks to the Chinese state-sponsored group APT31. APT31 is a cyber espionage group linked to China’s Ministry of State Security, known for targeted malware and spear-phishing attacks to gather intelligence in support of Chinese national interests. The attacks reportedly targeted unclassified diplomatic communications from emails and other documents about Asia. The Czech Foreign Minister, Jan Lipavský, responded by summoning the Chinese ambassador “to make clear that such hostile actions have serious consequences for bilateral relations,” according to Reuters. The Chinese embassy in the Czech Republic firmly rejected the accusations. Over the past decade, China and the Czech Republic have expanded bilateral trade, bringing in a staggering $23.23 billion in 2024 alone. Currently, China is the second largest trading partner of the Czech Republic, with recently increasing investments in renewable energy equipment, 5G technology, and high-end manufacturing equipment. In a show of support, the European Union and NATO expressed solidarity with the Czech Republic and reaffirmed their commitment to international responsibility for state behavior in cyberspace. In 2024, a Czech power company acquired a 20% stake in a British modular reactor company, aiming to enhance its clean energy sector. In 2024, a U.S. semiconductor manufacturer announced a $2 billion investment in the Czech Republic and established the Taiwan Trade and Investment Center in Prague.

Analysis: The recent Chinese-backed cyber attack on the Czech Republic will likely lead to decreased Chinese investment and an improved cyber defense infrastructure. As a result, bilateral relations between Prague and Beijing are likely to deteriorate. China will most likely scale back its investment in the Czech Republic’s infrastructure, energy, and telecommunications sectors. Earlier this month, the Czech Prime Minister’s cabinet rejected a Chinese investment project to build a satellite station over spying fears. Western allies like the U.S., EU members, and even Taiwan, who have all shown an interest in strengthening economic ties in Eastern Europe, will likely step in to fill the investment gap. If China slows its investment, some infrastructure projects in the Czech Republic could face delays or cancellations, but this shift also creates space for these emerging partnerships to step in. As a result, Prague would deepen its ties with democratic allies while reducing its economic dependence on China. The incident will likely lead to broader cybersecurity reforms in the Czech Republic and across NATO countries. NATO will likely use this incident to reinforce its cyber defense posture, calling on member states to increase funding and intelligence sharing. 

[Delaney Kingsland]

VENEZUELA: Expired Oil Licenses Likely to Lead to Aggression in Essequibo

Summary: The U.S. let Chevron’s Venezuelan oil license expire, cutting key revenue for Venezuela as President Nicolas Maduro pushed claims over Guyana’s Essequibo region and faced looming TPS expirations. Maduro will likely escalate aggression on Essequibo to offset economic losses and manage domestic infrastructure pressure. 

Development: On 28 May, the U.S. allowed the license issued to Chevron that allowed the company to export Venezuelan oil to expire. Venezuelan oil transactions under U.S. licenses have contributed 52% of Venezuelan exports. Venezuela held an election three days before the license expiration, which would vote on the regional governors and lawmakers. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro included voting on the Essequibo region to be on the ballet. Essequibo is a region in Guyana that is rich in oil, diamonds, gold, and timber, making up nearly two-thirds of the country. Caracas is claiming the right to Essequibo from the region, which was within its boundaries during Spain’s colonial era. The U.S. will let the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Venezuelans expire in September 2025. The decision on TPS would directly affect 350,000 Venezuelans living in the U.S. who received TPS after 2023. U.S. President Donald Trump has stated that this would pave the way to deport Venezuelans under TPS back to Venezuela. 

Analysis: President Maduro is likely to increase aggression on the Essequibo region in Guyana due to the loss of 52% of its oil exports and the threat of the U.S. deporting hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans. The loss of Chevron's ability to export Venezuelan oil will likely have a drastic negative effect on the current Venezuelan regime's ability to fund its operations. The threat of the U.S. deporting hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans on TPS back to Venezuela would likely overwhelm urban centers and social infrastructure that the Venezuelan government would not be able to handle without proper funds. Caracas likely views the Essequibo region as a viable option to supplement its funds from the loss of oil exports due to the region's rich natural resources. Venezuela will likely increase its aggression in the Essequibo region of Guyana with the goal of annexation. 

[Unnamed Contributor]